Everybody loves a 'trier', especially when you are putting your bets down. It's incredibly frustrating for punters to discover that their selection wasn't 'off' or that they didn't even get a fair chance for their money.

The increased transparency in betting exchanges and blanket television coverage have brought the issue of 'non-triers' to the forefront of horse racing. But football punters should also be vigilant. There is a lot of unrest in the football world, as evidenced by the recent match fixing scandal involving Robert Hoyzer in Germany, the ongoing investigations into certain Italian results, and the irregular betting patterns for obscure European and International matches.

The consistency of the results in the major leagues, and especially in England, indicates that there's no reason to lose confidence in punters. As in horse racing, the main problem is in the margins. This includes matches or races that are not in the spotlight of the media and where skulduggery will be less likely to raise suspicion.

A very difficult

My research indicates that the non-trier issue can be seen at the end of the year, even in major leagues. The majority of leagues are fiercely competitive, ensuring that they fight to the bitter end for the championships, European places and safety from relegation.

In the last weeks of the year, many teams will have little to play for, and this is when problems can occur.

Three types of matches are played during the last few weekends in a season.

1. The match between two teams that have nothing to play for.

2. Two teams playing for something.

3. The match between a team that has something to play about and a team without anything to play about.

Out Of Focus

In the first category it is impossible to predict the commitment of any team, so it makes sense to concentrate on the second and third categories towards the end.

You should use your normal techniques to assess matches in the second category. (Anybody who doesn't know needs to read our football betting articles on inside-edge-mag.co.uk - Ed), but the best betting opportunities often lie in category three, where there's always the potential for a 'non-trier'.

It's not that there is anything illegal going on in these matches, but that even a small lapse in concentration by one team could make a huge difference in an intensely competitive league like the English Premiership.

This drop in focus could be due to many factors, including the widespread belief that players are on holiday before the end season. In the modern game, it's also possible that a player with an injury is rested when his team doesn't have anything to play for. Or that training sessions are lowered. Our results show that a team who has something to play against is more likely than a team without anything to play about to win the match BOLAFT.

These matches, across the three top English divisions, the German Bundesliga, the French Ligue 1, and the Spanish Liga that we studied, usually result in a 50-60% win rate for the team who has something to play about, and a 20-30% win rate for the other team. These stats may vary from league to league and year to year, but they are generally consistent.